Adventurista - Latest Comments in "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Sarah Tavel — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 11:14:24 -0000

Mathew - Thanks so much for the comment. You frame the question as "there's no need to have [applications] installed." I don't think the question is whether you *need* to have installed apps. I agree you don't need them. But why not? will installed apps always be able to have a better use experience (i.e., be able to take advantage of constantly improving hardware)? if so, then why would you ever limit yourself to just a web browser?

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

mfarney — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:58:05 -0000

I say they will go away in 5 years. We already have Live operating systems that doesn't require any installation. We can run any type of application from our browsers so there's no need to have them installed. The only problem will be for those who don't have an internet connection. They still need to download and install their applications.
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Mathew Farney - Web Hosting

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

WasatchGirl — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:45:20 -0000

Exactly. It simply isn't there yet...

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

WasatchGirl — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:44:26 -0000

I agree with you. I always have a list of apps to install when I get a new computer. My list is almost identical to yours except I no longer use TweetDeck, my Mac doesn't require Norton, I've never really gotten into Evernote though I have tried a couple times, and I don't use Citrix Mainframe. (Yes, even I have Internet Explorer on my Mac as it is still a necessity sometimes. Boo!)

Others that I use include: Filezilla and Plaxo.

Usually downloading the app is 1) necessary (in the case of Mozy even though they have a cloud component) or 2) simply faster (in the case of uploads like Picassa).

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

davepayne — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 15:08:50 -0000

Interesting that all of the apps you list, short of your printer, all have their browser based counterparts. What's common to the apps is that some sort of runtime is being provided as a basis (browser, java, flash, etc). The actual app itself comes in the form of a dynamically distributed app that can execute locally, but is updated on the fly from a central system. Whether the runtime is available via the browser or not is fairly meaningless, the browser is just another runtime.

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Sarah Tavel — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:21:05 -0000

Actually I think you're right. I believe most applications will have a client-side component and a cloud component. It will be transparent to the user, but it will be different than just having the browser as your only client-side application.

Great comments all! I wish I could have you all on speed dial next time I get in one of these conversations...

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Jim Moran — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 12:08:16 -0000

I know it's sort of a cop-out but my view is the difference between web and installed will continue to become less and less meaningful. As a user it's basically the same value proposition for me to install an app to interact with a web services (like Tweetdeck) vs installing plugins (like flash) that improve my experience on an actual page.

And since systems like Air allow auto-updating and cross OS compatibility, the value proposition to the developer starts to look a lot similar to building web applications.

I also think there's a long term argument for plugins/bookmarklets like Glue, DotSpots, Instapaper that allow me to interact with web content in different ways. In theory these experiences should be possible via other websites (e.g., google reader), but there's a lot of cases where it's still easier to accomplish via the OS.

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

MattCope — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 11:13:45 -0000

Twitter clients are a great example of why desktop apps arent' going anywhere - they have functionality (keyboard shortcuts, embedded listmaking, search, etc.) that can't be matched with a browser intermediary.

I think this is the same reason for Hulu desktop, and why Boxee started with only a desktop application.

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Jon Smirl — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 08:25:03 -0000

The five years should have been up by now. Microsoft set the whole cloud computing world back by ten years when they killed Netscape. It was the equivalent of gas lighting companies using their existing resources to kill the new electricity vendors in order to stop progress.

It is inevitable that this shift will occur. It is the next logical step in the progression of the computing industry. The OS of the personal computer will so so commoditized that it will be invisible. $100 ARM based netbooks are the catalyst. It's the beginning of the end for Microsoft.

BTW, most cloud apps will have off-line modes so they will still work while disconnected.

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

mozyfan — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:55:43 -0000

Nice analysis and agree that you need multiple backup strategy.

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

mozyfan — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:54:53 -0000

Nice analysis and agree that you need multiple backup strategy.

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Sarah Tavel — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:45:39 -0000

Not to comment on my own comment, but one thing to ponder is why we have these powerful computers, when we could save a lot of money and get a cheap computer with just a browser if that's all we really need....

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Sarah Tavel — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:44:51 -0000

Eric - Thanks so much for the comment! And I 100% agree. Hopefully time will prove us right!

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Eric Friedman — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 20:43:53 -0000

I agree with you here.

I think there will be more local apps accessing cloud based service and with more web hooks, like adobe air apps and the like, but there will certainly still be installed apps.

I also think the ratio of apps that need some kind of beacon on your machine, but have 90% of their functionality in the cloud, will be higher.

There is also a large amount of enterprise computer users who get machines with legacy software on them that will DEFINITELY be in use in 5 years. (I am looking at ad agencies still using certain systems that are DOS based)

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Sarah Tavel — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:01:45 -0000

Two great comments on my facebook profile:

Seth Blank
Not until broadband connections are ubiquitous. And that includes rural patches of Kansas and over international waters. Of course, there will always be server-side installs ;-) Always.
6 minutes ago · Delete

Howard Wu
I don't think we should only use our powerful devices as only dumb terminals. The tasks could be share between device and cloud. Should be transparent to users though.
2 minutes ago · Delete

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Sarah Tavel — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:20:23 -0000

Good point - and preinstalled apps definitely need to count. thanks for the comment!

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Sarah Tavel — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:19:36 -0000

good point. I actually believe eventually all apps will have a cloud component. But I still find it hard to believe we won't have installed apps on our computer besides browsers.

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

andrewparker — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:13:12 -0000

It's interesting to note that many of the installed applications you list are marketed as cloud products because they store data in the cloud. But, they're right to be on that list because you don't interface with them via the broswer. The apps that fall into this bucket: Mozy, Dropbox, Picasa and Evernote.

Re: "Installed applications are going away in five years"

Fraser — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:09:54 -0000

I don't think installed applications are going anywhere for a long time. AB is probably one of the more progressive companies at giving up applications and embracing services on the web. That said we still rely daily on a handful of downloaded applications:

- excel
- skype
- firefox
- filezilla
- various browser plug-ins

and that's understating it, given that mac's come with a number of preinstalled applications that I constantly use:

- iphoto
- itunes
- textpad
etc.